“prediction is probably most valuable to us when we are not aware we are doing it. The more conscious we are that we are making predictions, the more complicated acting on them may be. This is trivially but consequentially true whenever there is a separation of responsibilities between (a) the agent(s) generating the prediction, (b) the agent(s) responsible for choosing to act on the prediction or ignore it, (c) the agent(s) responsible for deciding how to act and (d) the agent(s) responsible for implementing the desired action responding to the prediction.”

From: The Predictioneer’s Predicament

“In conclusion, it is rather striking that most criticisms of the prediction obsession focus on the methodological grounds for prediction. Critics doubt whether efficient prediction of complex systems is possible and insult predictioneers as would-be oracles. This may or may not be a legitimate criticism, but it takes for granted the singular importance of predictions in and of themselves. Religious texts and folk parables are full of prophets that accurately foresaw the future but found themselves cursed rather than blessed by their foresight. I would not necessarily go as far as to say that predictioneers are cursed. But I am not necessarily sure they are blessed either.”

From: The Predictioneer’s Predicament